A press release from the Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers (CIAB) provides a tiny sliver of optimism for a turnaround of the longstanding soft market in the property and casualty insurance field. But another report from the ISO makes for a difficult counterpoint.

According to a survey of the last quarter of 2008 conducted by CIAB, premium rates eased a bit for small, medium and large accounts. However, caution was the key word as brokers said that while premium decreases were not as drastic as past quarters, risk and underwriting will still play a big part in what happens next.

On the flip side, an article on IFAwebnews.com reports on news from the ISO that fourth-quarter losses in 2008 were some of the worst in history. It’s unclear if that will have any effect on premiums in early 2009.

It is now time to pull out my crystal ball to determine how this is all going to shake out!