As politicians eliminate or ignore traditional methods of assessing risk for health insurers, the likelihood of increased health insurance premiums grows, according to an analysis performed for the Council for Affordable Health Insurance.

The non-profit group said the analysis by Mark Litow of Milliman suggests that restricting underwriting puts “upward pressure” on the price of insurance premiums.

“If Congress limits insurers’ ability to underwrite, premiums will go up,” said Merrill Matthews, CAHI executive director, in a statement. “And the more they control it, the higher the premiums will be. If we really want to get health care costs under control, we should get back to real risk assessment, along with a strong safety net program to provide coverage for those who can’t get it.”

For example, the analysis shows that a reform plan similar to what President Barack Obama proposed as a presidential candidate would more than double the cost of premiums for those buying their own health insurance policies. While a plan similar to the one imposed in Massachusetts a few years ago would increase premiums by 75% to 95%, according to Litow’s assessment.

Matthews encouraged politicians to accept the benefits of actuarial underwriting. “The actuarial profession developed underwriting for a reason,” Matthews said. “It’s the best way to assess how much to charge a person or company applying for insurance coverage, whether it’s home, life, auto or health.”

Founded in 1992, CAHI is a nonpartisan research and advocacy association whose mission is to promote access, affordability and choice in American health care.